The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has warned that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in Nigeria could rise to N2,000 per litre if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global crude supply. The association urged urgent action to strengthen local refining capacity to cushion the country from external shocks.
PETROAN’s National President, Billy Gillis-Harry, issued the warning during a keynote lecture titled Deconstructing Energy Trilemma at Ignatius Ajuru University of Education in Port Harcourt.
In a statement released by the association’s spokesperson, Joseph Obele, PETROAN called on the Group Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Bayo Ojulari, to fast-track production at Nigeria’s state-owned refineries. The association specifically referenced the Area 5 Plant at the Port Harcourt Refinery and the Warri Refinery.
Gillis-Harry said escalating hostilities involving Israel, the United States and Iran are exerting pressure on global oil prices. He noted that attacks affecting strategic oil routes and infrastructure are increasing uncertainty across international supply chains.
He stated that continued instability could sustain upward price movements in both global and domestic petroleum markets. Before the recent escalation, PMS sold for about N774 per litre but has since exceeded N1,000, reflecting an increase of roughly 30 percent.
Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) has also recorded sharp increases. Prices previously around N950 per litre have risen to N1,400 and above, representing a surge of about 49 percent.
Looking ahead, PETROAN projected that PMS prices could approach N2,000 per litre if disruptions persist. Diesel prices, the association said, may climb toward N3,000 per litre under the same conditions.
Gillis-Harry stressed that reviving domestic refining remains critical to reducing Nigeria’s exposure to international market volatility. He said local processing of crude would help shield the economy from external supply shocks, noting that Nigeria has substantial crude reserves managed by NNPC Ltd.
He added that government-owned refineries are generally less vulnerable to global logistics disruptions compared to privately operated facilities dependent on imported crude feedstock.
The PETROAN president warned that further fuel price increases could intensify inflationary pressure, raise transport fares, weaken industrial output and increase the cost of goods and services nationwide. He noted that PMS is central to daily transportation, while diesel remains essential for manufacturing and heavy industry.
Despite current challenges, Gillis-Harry expressed optimism that ongoing reform measures under President Bola Tinubu would ease economic pressures and support long-term growth.
